May 15, 2025 – A new report by French think tank Terra Nova reveals that France will require between 250,000 and 310,000 foreign workers annually by the year 2040 to maintain its economic vitality and counterbalance the effects of an aging population.

The study, which underscores the strategic importance of immigration to France’s labor market, highlights that immigration is not just a social or political issue, but a vital economic necessity. As reported by News, the analysis paints a picture of a nation increasingly reliant on foreign labor to sustain core industries and meet long-term workforce demands.

France Faces a Demographic and Economic Crossroads

According to the Terra Nova report, France’s aging population is expected to lead to significant labor shortages in the coming decades. The country currently receives around 331,000 immigrants per year, based on 2022 figures. However, if economic activity is to remain stable through 2040, that level of immigration must be sustained—if not increased—to meet growing market demands.

The report warns that without targeted and sustained immigration policies, France risks a shortage of workers in essential sectors, potentially hampering productivity, growth, and public service delivery.

Sectors Dependent on Foreign Labor

Several key industries in France are already heavily reliant on foreign workers, with labor shortages worsening in recent years. Among the most affected:

Healthcare: In the Île-de-France region—home to Paris and the country's largest economic hub—61% of healthcare workers are foreign nationals. Across the country, nearly 20% of doctors working in public institutions are believed to have earned their qualifications abroad.

Construction and Agriculture: These physically demanding sectors struggle to attract local labor, relying increasingly on seasonal and long-term foreign workers.

Cleaning and Sanitation Services: Similar to construction and agriculture, these sectors face persistent recruitment difficulties and depend on migrant labor to operate effectively.

The findings reinforce the idea that immigration is not just a demographic solution but an economic imperative to prevent critical service disruptions and maintain economic resilience.

Public Sentiment at Odds with Economic Reality

Despite growing evidence that France needs more foreign workers, public opinion appears to be moving in the opposite direction. A recent poll conducted by the CSA Institute for JDD, Europe 1, and CNews revealed that 48% of French citizens support a policy of zero immigration, marking a 7% increase compared to 2021.

The poll, conducted in November 2024 and based on responses from 1,011 adults, shows a sharp divide in public attitudes toward immigration, often influenced by gender, political affiliation, and age:

Men were more inclined to reject the idea of zero immigration (55% opposed),

Women showed greater support for the campaign (53% in favor),

Left-wing voters generally opposed zero immigration policies,

Right-wing and far-right voters were strongly supportive.

This growing disconnect between expert recommendations and public opinion poses a major challenge for policymakers attempting to implement immigration policies aligned with economic realities.

Balancing Policy, Politics, and Public Perception

The Terra Nova report urges French authorities to bridge the gap between economic needs and public perception through better communication, transparency, and inclusive policymaking. It calls on the government to adopt proactive labor immigration strategies that support critical sectors while addressing social cohesion and integration challenges.

As labor shortages grow more severe and the population continues to age, the question is no longer whether France can afford to welcome more foreign workers—but whether it can afford not to.